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The New Agriculture Network's on-line newsletter with seasonal advice for field crop and vegetable growers interested in organic agriculture.
Next issue will be posted August 15, 2007. Read previous issues through our calendar of issues.What impact will biofuels have on organic markets? The rapid growth in biofuels, primarily ethanol but biodiesel as well, is having a major impact on the commodity grain and livestock sectors. This raises the question of how these changes in the commodity sector will affect organic markets and, more importantly, the incentives to transition to organic production. The answer is complex and the purpose of this article is to examine how the changes in the commodity sector due to the increased use of crops for fuel may impact the organic market. Let’s start with an update on how the growth in biofuels has affected the commodity sector, both in terms of prices and U.S. farmers’ acreage responses to those prices. Table 1 presents the U.S. average farm price and U.S. planted acreage for commodity corn, soybeans and wheat for the 2003/04 crop through projections for the 2007/08 crop. Over the previous four years, commodity corn was planted on roughly 80 million acres with an average farm price around $2 to $2.40 a bushel. Starting with the 2006/07 corn crop, the increased demand from ethanol plants pushed the corn price up to $3.05 for the 2006/07 crop, and the USDA is currently predicting prices in the $3 range for the 2007/08 corn crop. The higher corn prices in 2006 and 2007 have caused U.S. farmers to plant a record corn acreage at 92.9 million acres, the highest amount since 1944. |
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This increased corn acreage has come largely at the expense of soybean acreage, though farmers have also shifted 20 percent of the cotton acreage into corn as well. For the 2007/08 soybean crop, U.S. farmers are only planting 64 million acres compared to the 72 to 75 million acres planted the previous four years. Because of the lower planted acreage, soybean prices have increased as well with the USDA predicting soybean prices to be in the $7.25 to $8.25 range, which is markedly higher than the $5 to $6 range from the previous three years. The case of wheat is different than corn and soybeans; this year U.S. farmers are planting slightly more than in previous years and the USDA is predicting higher prices in the $4.80 to $5.40 range. The reason wheat prices are up is because world supplies of wheat are very tight due to poor crops this year and last year in the major wheat growing countries. We can expect commodity wheat prices to remain high for the next few years for two reasons: 1) world wheat supplies need to be built back up, and 2) wheat needs to compete for acreage with corn and soybeans whose prices are high due to demand for fuel feedstocks. Table 1: U.S. average farm price and U.S. acreage for commodity corn, soybeans and wheat.
So, what do these substantially higher commodity corn, soybean and wheat prices mean for the organic market in the short term and long term? Short-term impacts on the organic market The organic corn market is being driven by increased demand for certified organic meat, poultry and dairy products. The growth in the certified organic livestock industry has pushed organic corn prices up to the $10 range in 2007, up from the $5 to $6 range in 2005 according to OPX (July 2007). This large price increase has occurred during 2007 with organic corn prices in April at about $7 and increasing each month thereafter according to the Agricultural Marketing Service of the USDA (http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/nw_gr113.txt ). With certified organic corn selling for more than twice the commodity corn price, this should limit the number of organic grain producers who shift back to conventional production. The organic soybean market is being driven by cheap imports from China, which have kept the price of organic soybeans for feed in the $14 range. As with wheat, the much higher commodity soybean prices may stimulate demand for organic products by lowering the price differential between organic and non-organic products. Long-term impacts on the organic market In summary, the organic market is still fairly separate from the commodity market and prices in the organic market will be determined by the supply and demand for certified organic products. That said, the commodity market and the organic market compete for the food consumers’ dollar. Consumer surveys have shown that one of the major reasons that consumers do not purchase organic products is that they cost more than conventional products. This is where the good news about higher commodity prices comes in: higher commodity grain prices are leading to higher conventional food prices, especially cereal products and livestock products. Thus, if organic food prices stay the same or do not increase as much as conventional food prices, then organic products will be priced more competitively at the grocery store. And the really good news is that the price of organic products does not have to fall for them to be priced more competitively relative to conventional products! |
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Late summer cover crop seedings On the New Ag Network organizational conference call on July 24, some farmers had questions about seeding cover crops in the latter part of summer. Two cover crops in particular were mentioned – hairy vetch and soybeans. Hairy vetch Hairy vetch has a tendency to re-grow in fields where it has been planted. This can cause problems particularly in small grains. The seed of hairy vetch is really hard to separate from small grains. Farmers need to remove hairy vetch plants similar to weeds when in small grains. To summarize, I would plant hairy vetch after August 1. The date should be modified to consider soil conditions. For example, if your soils have adequate moisture, I would plant earlier. But if your soil conditions are very dry, I would wait until the conditions are right. Paul Mugge from Iowa had a good suggestion. He was going to prepare his fields for seeding now and when he receives some rain he is going to seed his cover crops into the prepared ground. Soybeans If you want to seed soybeans as a cover crop, I would plant it as soon as possible, especially if you want soybeans to nodulate and produce some nitrogen for next year. Floyd Johnson from Illinois mentioned that soybeans may provide more nitrogen benefits for next year if you produce beans and then work them into the soil. A lower rate of soybeans will enhance seed production and I would recommend 1.5 bushels per acre if this is your intent. I hope this helps your late summer cover crop seeding plans. |
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Illinois workshops on diverse topics from soap-making to organic feed for orangutans |
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Reports from organic growers Indiana The past few weeks we have been succession planting things like beets, carrots, soy and beans. We have also started flats of broccoli, cabbage, cauliflower, cucumbers and squash for later planting in the field. With the cool nights we have been able to transplant-out lettuce very successfully. We hilled the fall potato crop and cultivated the fall squash and pumpkins. Another task we have completed is weeding and re-trellising the spring raspberries. Our strawberry rows that needed narrowed-up have been completed. Currently we are trying to hand-weed small beets, carrots and basil. Upcoming field work will include getting the remainder of the onions that were grown on plastic mulch out of the field before the next rain comes. Another task will be to hand-hoe the pumpkins, fall squash and new strawberries. One other nasty job will be to weed our asparagus rows – that will not be fun at all! Questions Southeast Indiana, Decatur County – Gary Reding We did some different applications of animal manure compost on our popcorn fields this year. One field had composted chicken manure, two had composted cattle manure and one field had none. So far they all look the same and not showing any stress to date even in the dry weather. I had some nitrogen testing done and the one with no manure applied had the highest in N availability, which is surprising to me. I think the moisture is our limiting factor at this point. It will be interesting to see the yield results in the end. So far we have had no insect issues on any of the crops, but I saw the crop duster flying last week on some conventional crops. South Central Indiana, Brown County – Dale Rhoads Along with the rain has been cooler weather that is slowing down squash and other summer crops, but not hurting them adversely. The cooler and wetter weather is giving some disease problems with salad greens and basil, but not much damage. After not having much caterpillar pressure, cabbage looper is now showing up. I just about had the weeding of long season crops down and then had some labor shortages and still have some more of that to do. We are harvesting all the summer crops now. Cool weather is keeping the salad greens going strong. So we are keeping up with regular salad greens plantings and setting up sterile seed beds. We did several no-till experiments this year; the entire no-till areas were rye crimped. The corn is doing fine, the squash and peppers are doing fine, but the squash on no-till is not producing as much as squash with conventional tillage or the squash that was mulched, which is producing the best of the three. We are getting final weeding done on long season crops. We are planting some cover crops for next year. This is the time of year when we are spending most of our time harvesting, processing and making deliveries. Illinois West Suburban Chicago, Lake County—Steve Tiwald of Green Earth Institute We are doing lots of harvesting, as we are in the midst of our CSA season. Last week we finished the spring broccoli and cauliflower. Now the warm-season crops are starting to kick in – the tomatoes, eggplant and peppers. We are experiencing significant flea beetle problems in the Russian kale. In the summer squash, powdery mildew is setting in. Western corn rootworm beetles have begun their annual infestation despite the fact that we do not grow corn, and there is none in the immediate vicinity; these must blow in. We are continuing our periodic seeding of lettuce into greenhouse trays. During the next two weeks, harvesting of many crops will continue regularly, of course. We are beginning the transplanting out of the fall crops of broccoli, cauliflower, bok choi, kohlrabi and cabbage. For the first time we will be trying our new drip tape burying implement to use under those fall crops. As strips get finished for the season, such as snap peas, broccoli, cauliflower and garlic, we will be doing light tillage and planting summer cover crops of either buckwheat or sorghum-sudan grass. Iowa I just finished harvesting triticale. It yielded about 60 bushels per acre – three-fourths of a normal yield. I am combining flax now and it will also be lower yielding – about 20 bushels per acre. The good news is that there are almost no weeds in it and the flax was short so it combines really easily. The frost seeding experiment in the fall triticale produced a so-so stand of red clover and almost no alfalfa plants. We are also finishing walking beans. They are very clean this year because of the dry June. I need to finish baling straw and getting the bales home. I have triticale, flax and soybeans to deliver next week. I need to till the triticale stubble where I didn’t get a cover crop stand so that when it rains I can immediately drill cover crops. I’m going to try cow peas and seed a few field peas and soybeans for comparison. I also have a lot of manure to haul and a couple of roofs to shingle before fall. Questions Michigan Currently we are irrigating, planting fall greens, beets, carrots and radishes. We are harvesting summer squash, cucumbers, pickles, peppers, eggplant, onions and potatoes. During the next two weeks we will plant a third planting of zucchini, squash and cucumbers, as well as continuing to harvest. Southwest Michigan, Berrien County – Greg Vlaming Weather continues to be very dry with one shower last week resulting in a whopping 1.5 inches in the rain gauge. Otherwise, the highs have been in the upper 70s or low 80s with clear skies and a slight breeze. Tomato harvest from the hoophouse has been strong for a month now, and the fruit on the outdoor plants is beginning to color as well. Almost all of the garlic is dug, which is immediately cleaned and much of it is braided before drying. Onion harvest has begun, and the first all blue potatoes are being dug. Flower production is strong and the sunflowers are in full glory. Other crops being sold presently include fresh basil, herb bundles, summer squash, beets, carrots, lettuce, red Russian kale, Swiss chard and free range eggs. The major insect pests have been tomato hornworm, and Colorado potato beetle, both of which are monitored through diligent scouting, handpicked and fed to the chickens. Weed management and watering are the major jobs now. In spite of our dry conditions and drip irrigation, the weed pressure has been strong as our biggest growing area is a newly plowed field previously undisturbed and overgrown with various grasses and weeds. |
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