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| Fruit Crop Advisory Team Alert newsletter | ||||
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| Vol. 21, No. 17, September, 2006 |
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| In this issue Tree fruit news  Apple maturity guidelines Late season codling moth management in apples Showcase features peaches, plum, pear and early apple varietiesSmall fruit news TNRC trapline data Botrytis gray mold control in fall raspberries New publication for Midwest strawberry productionOther news Controlling perennial weeds with fall-applied glyphosate Glyphosate confusion: What are the differences in formulations? Bilingual publication advises fresh produce sellers Regional reports Weather news
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| Apple maturity guidelines Philip Schwallier, Clarksville Hort. Res. Station Coordinator Bill Shane, SW Michigan Research & Extension Center Maturity and storage guidelines by variety have been developed over the years through the MSU Apple Maturity Program. These guidelines help target the harvest of apples at the optimum maturity and best storage life. Firmness and starch iodine index readings are easily performed in the field. Table 1 lists the suggested firmness and starch index levels for long-term and shorter-term storage by variety. The starch index "mature" level is a guide for long-term CA storage and the "overmature" level for short CA or cold storage. The variety Empire has a firmness level guideline for CA empires that are to be held for export. Empire needs an additional 2 lbs. firmness if they are to be exported. They need to be a minimum of 16 lbs. firmness out of storage at shipping time to arrive at their export destination in good condition.
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| Starch iodine index indicates the gradual change of starch to sugars in the fruit. In general, immature fruit are nearly 100 percent full of starch and will stain black (1 or 2) on the 8 point, New York Starch Iodine Index Chart. As the starch stain clears the core and starts to clear the flesh, the fruit then are mature and ideal for long-term CA storage. Fruits will often remain in the "mature" for 7 to 10 days and then start to enter the "overmature" class. Overmature fruit are good for short CA or cold storage. Brix readings are a guide for target sugar levels in fruit. The higher the better, but from year to year there is quite a lot of variation. Light crops will tend to have higher brix levels and heavy crops will be on the low end. Honeycrisp are expected to have higher brix readings. Fruit firmness is often the major factor in deciding when to pick a block of apples. (view image) The ideal situation is a firm apple with a starch index in the mature zone. However, when fruit firmness drops close to the level for the intended storage (long to short CA, or cold storage), then it is time to harvest, regardless of the brix or the starch reading. The starch and brix readings at the time of harvest give a strong indication of the potential eating quality when the fruit comes out of storage. Apple maturity guide
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| Late season codling moth management in apples John Wise MSU Trevor Nichols Research Complex (TNRC) Codling moth adult flight has increased over the last two weeks at the TNRC, indicating that egg laying will continue into September in some locations. Site specific monitoring is the best way to determine if control action is needed on your farm. The following table includes a list of insecticides, the codling moth life stages that they are active on, and label information relevant to late season spraying.
** 21 day PHI if more than 2 lb rate of Guthion |
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| Showcase features peaches, plum, pear and early apple varieties International Plant Management, Inc., of Lawrence, Michigan, will sponsor a variety showcase on September 7, in cooperation with Cornell University, Michigan State University and Summit Tree Sales. It will feature tree fruit varieties including new test varieties from several locations in Michigan, New York and Pennsylvania. Speakers will include Dr. Bill Shane of MSU, Wallace Heuser of International Plant Management; Annette and Randy Bjorge of Fruit Acres Stellar Peaches; Paul Friday of Flamin’ Fury Peaches; nurserymen, and other plant breeders and researchers. The event will be held at the home and grounds of Wallace and Laura Heuser at 55826 Sixtieth Avenue, Lawrence. Registration and variety displays will begin at 3:00 PM. Discussions and presentations will run from 4:00 to 6:00 PM, and a barbecue will begin at 6:30 PM. All growers and Extension personnel and their spouses are invited. Call (800) 424-2765 for directions or further information. |
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| Botrytis gray mold control in fall raspberries Annemiek Schilder Plant Pathology Gray mold, caused by the fungus Botrytis cinerea, is one of the most important diseases affecting fall raspberries. Fall raspberries are usually at greater risk of infection than summer raspberries because of the prevailing weather conditions, such as lower temperatures, heavy dews, and frequent precipitation. Cool, wet weather is conducive to development of the fungus and infection of the fruit. Typical symptoms include a brown discoloration of the fruit and the presence of a gray fuzzy mold, which can rapidly develop and spread to neighboring healthy berries. Symptoms tend to be more severe inside the canopy and on clusters that are closer to the ground. Even if berries look perfectly healthy at harvest, they can change to a moldy mass within 24-48 hours. Botrytis cinerea is a ubiquitous fungus, which is able to grow and sporulate profusely on dead organic matter. It overwinters in old infected canes and plant debris. The spores are airborne and can travel long distances on the wind. When the spores land on plant surfaces, they germinate and can invade the plant tissues directly or through wounds. Overripe berries and bruised berries are particularly susceptible to infection. Latent flower infections are not as important in raspberries as they are in strawberries. Cultural methods are very important for control of Botrytis gray mold. Choosing a site with good air flow can reduce humidity in the canopy considerably. Low-density plantings, narrow rows and trellising can also reduce a buildup of humidity. Good weed control and moderate fertilizer use to avoid lush growth are also important. Selecting a resistant cultivar or, at the minimum, avoiding highly susceptible cultivars will help to reduce the need for control measures. During picking, avoid handling infected berries, since spores can be transferred on hands to healthy berries. Timely harvesting and rapid post-harvest cooling can also help to reduce losses to Botrytis gray mold. Several fungicides are labeled for control of Botrytis in raspberries. Fungicide sprays during bloom are important to prevent pre-harvest infections, while post-harvest infections can be reduced by sprays close to harvest. Switch (cyprodinil + fludioxonil) is a reduced-risk fungicide with excellent systemic and protectant activity against gray mold. It has a 0-day pre-harvest interval (PHI). Another good option is Elevate (fenhexamid), which is a reduced-risk, locally systemic fungicide with a 0-day PHI. Since these fungicides are in different chemical classes, they can be alternated for fungicide resistance management. My recommendation is to save Switch and Elevate for critical sprays, e.g., during wet periods and for sprays closer to harvest. Other fungicides that may be used in the spray program are Captevate (captan + fenhexamid) (3-day PHI), Pristine (pyraclostrobin + boscalid) (0-day PHI), Captan (captan) (3-day PHI), Rovral (iprodione) (0-day PHI), and Nova (myclobutanil) (0-day PHI). To improve the efficacy of Rovral, an adjuvant may need to be added. Pristine and Nova also provide excellent control of late leaf rust, which sometimes infects the leaves and fruit of fall raspberries. |
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| New publication for Midwest strawberry production
The new "Midwest Strawberry Production Guide" produced by Ohio State University is now available for $9.75. This 138-page bulletin contains the most comprehensive and regionally relevant information available for the Midwest strawberry industry. It contains:
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| Controlling perennial weeds with fall-applied glyphosate Eric Hanson, Horticulture September is an excellent time to control many hard-to-kill perennial weeds in orchards, vineyards and blueberry plantings. Woody vines (poison ivy, Virginia creeper, wild grape), tree seedlings (poplar, maple) and herbaceous perennials (brambles, horsenettle, milkweed, Canada thistle) are hard to eradicate with soil applied herbicides, but fall treatments with glyphosate can provide excellent control. Fall is when these perennial plants translocate sugars from the leaves to the roots. Glyphosate is also translocated to kill the below-ground parts so the weeds don’t emerge the next year. Of course glyphosate is a non-selective herbicide, so it will also kill trees, grapevines and blueberry bushes if applied to leaves or green stems. Make sure spray does not contact leaves or green bark of your fruit crop. Special equipment such as wick applicators or spray shields may be needed to keep spray off desired plants. There are many glyphosate products labeled for use on Michigan fruit crops. Some may be more effective than others. Christy Sprague wrote the accompanying article together for an earlier Field Crop CAT Alert. Much of this information applies to glyphosate use in fruit crops. |
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| Glyphosate confusion: What are the differences in formulations? Christy Sprague Crop & Soil Sciences There are over 30 different glyphosate products that growers in Michigan can choose from for weed control in glyphosate-tolerant (Roundup Ready) crops. With all of these choices, it is important to keep in mind that not all glyphosate formulations are created equal. Knowing your glyphosate product is essential to achieving optimum weed control. While all of these options contain the same active ingredient (glyphosate), differences exist in the formulated products that can influence overall weed control. Below is a general explanation of some of the differences that you may observe in the different glyphosate products that you can purchase in Michigan. Differences in the concentration of glyphosate One of the biggest differences in the glyphosate products that are available in Michigan is the concentration of the glyphosate acid in the formulation (the glyphosate acid is what kills the weed). This concentration is expressed as pounds acid equivalent per gallon (lb a.e./gal). Unlike other herbicides, glyphosate containing products are formulated as salts to enhance absorption into the plant. Several types of salts have been used to formulate different glyphosate products over the years and each salt has a different molecular weight. Primary salts that have been used to formulate glyphosate products include: potassium, isopropylamine, monoammonium, diammonium, and trimesium salts. Because of the differences in the molecular weights of these salts there are changes in the glyphosate acid to salt ratio in the different glyphosate products. These changes cause differences in the amounts of active ingredient (glyphosate acid + salt) and acid equivalent in of many of these formulations. Once absorbed into the plant the salt is cleaved off and the glyphosate acid binds to the site of action which ultimately leads to plant death in susceptible plant species. Because the glyphosate acid is the portion of the formulation that ultimately controls the weed, we often refer to glyphosate rates not in terms of pounds active ingredient (a.i.) per acre, but in terms of pounds acid equivalents (a.e.) per acre. For example, a normal use rate for postemergence weed control in glyphosate-tolerant crops is often 0.75 lb a.e./A, this rate is equivalent to 32 fl oz/A for a 3 lb a.e./gal product like Buccaneer Plus and equivalent to 22 fl oz/A for a 4.5 lb a.e./gal product like Roundup WeatherMax. Even though the product rates are different for each of the formulations in this example they are both delivering the same amount of glyphosate acid to the plant. To help sort out some of the confusion for several of the products available in Michigan Table 10 in the MSU Weed Control Guide for Field Crops (E-434) is a compiled list of several glyphosate products and the product use rates for equivalent amounts of glyphosate acid per acre. Addition of a surfactant Another difference in glyphosate products is whether a surfactant needs to be added to the spray solution or if the formulated glyphosate product has a built-in adjuvant package. Products like Roundup WeatherMax, Touchdown Total, Glyphomax XRT and several others have built-in adjuvant systems. Even though all of these products have a built-in adjuvant system, there can and many times are differences in the type of surfactant formulated in the product. These differences may equate to differences in weed control under extreme conditions. With some of these products under adverse conditions the addition of 0.25% v/v of a non-ionic surfactant may help improve glyphosate activity. However, under most conditions there are no differences between these products especially when they are used at the correct rates at the appropriate application timings. For products where the addition of a surfactant is recommended add a high quality non-ionic surfactant at 0.25% to 1.0% v/v, depending on product. Table 10 in the MSU Weed Control Guide for Field Crops (E-434) includes information on whether the addition of a surfactant is recommended for a particular product. Whether a surfactant needs to be added or not, virtually all glyphosate products recommend the addition of ammonium sulfate (AMS). We recommend adding dry spray grade AMS at 17 lbs/100 gal. or the equivalent of 17 lbs/100 gal. of liquid AMS products. The addition of AMS minimizes the negative effect of hard water on glyphosate activity and is important for velvetleaf control, regardless of water quality. |
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| Bilingual publication advises fresh produce sellers
The publication Selling fruits and vegetables by Eldon Everhart and Barbara Lovitt gives advice on growing and selling fresh produce. It warns that although it can be a profitable and satisfying family business; risks are involved. Before investing money, time and energy into any new business venture, it is advisable to first evaluate personal skills, market conditions, financial resources and overall project feasibility. |
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Regional reports For the last few weeks, highs have been in the low 80s to the 70s. Rain with hail moved across the region Wednesday (August 23). Severe damage was reported in blueberries where fruit and leaves were knocked off the bushes and the bark of stems was torn. Apple fruit was also damaged reducing the crop to juice grade fruit. Rainfall totals were as high as four inches in the south. Most areas received about two to three inches or more in the last two weeks. This week’s forecast is for warm weather with highs in the 70s with a chance of thunderstorms almost every day. In the last week we picked up 200 GDD42 and 100 GDD50. In the coming week, we will pick up about 200 GDD42 and 100 GDD50. The GDD below are from the Enviro-weather site.
General insect activity Japanese beetles numbers are low. Apple maggot flies are down. Trap catches for both Oriental fruit moth and codling moth are variable with high numbers reported in some locations. You can use the Enviro-weather site GDD model for some pests if you know its emergence or biofix at your site. Tree fruit Peach harvest is declining. Varieties being harvested include Encore and other late varieties. We are at the end of the third generation of Oriental fruit moth. Brown rot continues to be a problem for some growers. Sweet cherry and tart cherry orchards generally look good. Some tart cherry orchards have been defoliated by cherry leaf spot. In plums, Stanley harvest has begun. Brown rot is problem for some growers. In apples, Gala and McIntosh harvest have begun. Hail damage was widespread but variable in Van Buren County. Apple maggot trap catches have declined. Trap catches for Oriental fruit moth and codling moth vary quite a bit in area orchards. We should be at the end of the third generation of Oriental fruit moth. And the second generation of codling moth, but trap numbers are up in some orchards. Growers with late and midseason apples may want to apply one last cover spray if they are unsure of their trap numbers in orchards. Sooty blotch and flyspeck is appearing in some sprayed orchards. Some apple growers have reported pinpoint apple scab. Pear harvest has begun. Bartlett pears are being harvested. Small fruit Blueberry harvest continues. Elliot harvest is underway. Hail in Allegan and Van Buren counties caused the loss of crop in many Elliot and Jersey fields. Since Elliot harvest had just begun, this is a significant loss to those growers. Some harvest of the remaining fruit has shifted to berries for processing. In grapes, Niagara harvest should start this week. Grape berry moth trap catch numbers are down. The heavy dews each morning are excellent conditions for downy mildew; this disease is widespread and common. Grape scouting reports can be found at the MSU Grape recourses page at www.grapes.msu.edu. Strawberry new growth is off to a good start. Potato leafhopper burn and leaf spot are common in many fields. Fall raspberry harvest is underway with large volumes of fruit in local markets. Heavy morning dews are common and this increases the likelihood of gray mold. Monitor pre harvest intervals (PHI) for fungicide and insecticide sprays. |
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2 -- Southeast Over the last two weeks, most growers have received around 1 inch of rain. A few have received 3 to 4 inches. Much of this came either on Saturday (August 26) or Monday (August 28). There were also some isolated severe hailstorms that struck the Almont/Armada areas in a freak nighttime storm on August 24. With these most recent rain events, the best way to describe overall soil moisture conditions is extremely variable. Most growers now have adequate moisture supplies; however, there are some that have not had significant rain for the last two months. Seasonal GDD totals have now dropped back to a more normal range, but the first harvest for fruit crops is about a week ahead. GDD totals for March 1 to September 4
Tree fruit Apples have sized very well this year and color has continued to improve over the last 2.5 weeks. Most apples are now in the 3- to 3.5-inch diameter. Growers are now starting to spot pick earlier maturing Gala strains, and a few have begun to spot pick early maturing McIntosh. Starting September 6, I will be publishing a weekly Apple Harvest Update throughout the fall. For growers in the southeast region who would like to receive this electronically or via fax, contact me and I will add you to a list to receive this timely apple harvest information. Codling moth trap catches have dropped back to very low levels with most traps not having any at all. I believe we are at the end of the second generation flight. There will be the start of third generation flight in the next few weeks. However, I don’t think there will be a complete third generation, which means the fruit most likely will not be a risk. Stay tuned for more details. Apple maggot trap catches have been low. Oriental fruit moth trap catches have been a bit variable with some being on the high side for this late in the season. I’m not quite certain what this means. Japanese beetle populations have declined dramatically over the last week. Leaf drop is continuing on many of our fruit crops from earlier leaf feeding damage. European corn borer feeding has been a problem only in a few isolated blocks, possibly where a pesticide application was either missed or washed off due to rain. I don’t feel it will be a problem this season. Spotted tentiform leafminer leaf mines have become more evident over the last two weeks with some growers having high numbers of mines from the second generation flight. Most of the larvae in the leaf mine have been fed upon by predators. European red mite continues to be seen in hot spots, and they are now laying eggs in the calyx end of apples. Sooty blotch and flyspeck is more common this week. Apple scab-infected foliage and fruit continues to show up in higher amounts as we complete the season. Some pin-point scab symptoms are now showing up as well. This was to be expected; we had some extremely high pressure apple scab infection periods this spring. Some flagging from old fire blight infections continues to be seen. Pear harvest is pretty well complete for Barlet and its related varieties. Winter pears will be harvested in a few weeks. Peach harvest has wrapped up at just about all farms. We had an excellent crop this year. There is some extensive leaf drop due to bacterial spot infected fruit as well as Japanese beetle feeding. Sweet and tart cherry leaf drop continues, primarily due to earlier Japanese beetle feeding on the foliage, as well as some lesser amounts of cherry leaf spot disease. Plum harvest is underway for Stanley types. There have been some isolated reports of brown rot. I have seen extensive leaf drop from heavy Japanese beetle feeding injury earlier in the season. Small fruit Strawberries continue to rebound very nicely from the renovation process, and many newly planted fields have finally filled out the rows. Remember the Labor Day window is an opportunity for herbicide application. Raspberry harvest continues for fall red raspberries; we have an excellent crop coming along this year. Bird feeding pressure has been extreme. Blackberry harvest continues with an excellent crop. Blueberry harvest has just about wrapped up. We had an excellent crop this year. We’ve had high pressure from blueberry maggot, as well as heavy bird pressure throughout the season. Concord grape harvest is starting. Some of the seedless grape varieties are now maturing as well. |
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3 -- Grand Rapids Area Peach harvest is winding down. Plum harvest is over now. Pears are nearing the end of harvest. Apple harvest is really just beginning and seems to be moving slower than expected. Galas should move into full swing this week with Macs and Honeycrisp right behind them. Codling moth trap numbers finally started to decrease about two weeks ago, but numbers were still over threshold early last week in some blocks. Scouts should be encouraged to have traps up with fresh lures in them through the month of September especially in blocks with high numbers. Obliquebanded leafroller are flying again, and larvae should become easier to find at any time. More blocks continue to show bronzing due to high European red mite numbers. Apple maggot have not been very active over the past two weeks or so – probably due to the dry weather. Monitoring should continue in high pressure blocks and those that have to follow export protocols. Dock sawfly and European corn borer could be a problem later this year at harvest time, especially in blocks with significant weeds in the tree rows. These insects are attracted to the stalky weeds, but then find the apples a good host as well. Field corn is starting to dry down and will not be a favorable host for ECB, which could move into nearby apples. This shouldn’t be an issue if the field corn is Bt corn. For all pesticide applications at this time of year so close to harvest, be sure to double check your product labels to be sure you are following the correct Pre-Harvest Intervals. There have been many changes in recent years to PHI’s so you want to be sure your applying legally. Retain applications are recommended by the product label to be applied 30 days ahead of anticipated harvest. Varieties that are about 30 days from harvest include: Golden Delicious and Red Delicious, Ida Reds and Romes. Recently, there has been some information about using lower rates of Retain (half rate) at about two weeks before anticipated harvest to work as a stop drop application. This is not recommended by the product label yet, but you may want to try it on a limited basis. Leave a check to see how it works for you. Varieties that are about two weeks from optimal harvest are Honeycrisp and Empire. By the end of this week, Jonathan and Jonagold will be about two weeks from harvest as well. |
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4 -- West Central The relatively warm, dry weather pattern continues. There has not been any significant precipitation for more than a week. For the last four weeks the precipitation in the area has been behind normal, but for the season, we are several inches ahead of normal. Nevertheless, at this point our soils are depleted of moisture and the trees would benefit from some rain. GDD totals: March 1 to September 3
Commodity reports Peach harvest is underway with a good crop of peaches and very good quality. Early apple varieties are being harvested. McIntosh is testing green though there is some movement in terms of starch conversion into sugar. There are a few drops in some orchards and application of NAA at 10 ppm at this time is recommended. It appears that McIntosh might be ready for harvest in about 10 days or so. Other varieties are developing nicely (where there is a crop of any consequence). Plums are being harvested. Stanley plums are still green and their harvest is expected in about seven to 10 days. Insect activity is slowing down. Codling moth trap catches are generally down, though there are a few blocks where the number of moths per trap is still very high. In such instances, we might have issues with OP resistance. We are just about at the end of the second generation flight that historically occurs around 2100 GDD50 and nearing 100 percent egg hatch. Controls still need to be in place to prevent wormy fruit in the box. At this time, it is necessary to observe the pre-harvest intervals and choose materials with a short PHI. Obliquebanded leafroller numbers are slightly higher than last week. The second flight is nearing or at the peak. European red mites are present in high numbers just about everywhere. Their eggs could be found at the calyx-end of the fruit. Lesser peachtree borer and greater peachtree borer numbers have gone up in the last week. American plum borer numbers are declining. Japanese beetles are common in many blocks. Tarnished plant bug seems to be everywhere. Apple maggot is showing slight decline, though the trap catches are still high. Brown rot is showing quite frequently in the area. Humid weather conditions are facilitating disease development. |
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5 -- Northwest
Weather No precipitation occurred this past week. However, we had rain the previous week, though amounts in NW Michigan varied considerably. At the NWMHRS, 2.02 inches fell during the week, which matched the previous season high during the week of May 16. Evaporation rates the past two weeks have dropped to levels not seen since May. Tree Fruit Ginger Gold and similar earlier maturing apple varieties are being harvested for local markets. We will be conducting apple maturity testing at the NWMHRS, so growers are invited to drop off 10-12 apple samples for maturity analysis. Samples should be dropped off at the station on Mondays or Tuesday mornings, and we will perform analysis on Tuesdays. Codling moth numbers are still down at the NWMHRS. We are still catching obliquebanded leafrollers (OBLR), with an average of 8 moths/trap this week. We caught no apple maggots on red sticky spheres. Defoliation from cherry leaf spot is becoming more widespread around the region. In some blocks, we are still catching elevated numbers of cherry fruit flies. We have observed firing in cherry blocks, both in tarts and sweets. Two-spotted spider mites (TSSM) and the dry conditions are the likely culprits of the firing. TSSM populations are very high, and growers can easily find these mites collecting down at the base of the trees. A reminder to growers that TSSM turn an orange color in the fall, which can be mistaken for European red mites; however, TSSM spin webbing that can be readily seen with high two spot populations. OBLR catches continue to be on the high side with an average of 15 moths/trap. Small fruit Verasion is complete in northwest Michigan for nearly all grape cultivars, and color development has been excellent thus far. We will begin brix readings this week at the NWMHRS. Marquis table grapes are ready for a first picking. Powdery mildew has been a perplexing problem in a small number of vineyards, resulting in severe cluster infections and berry drop despite tight fungicide treatment schedules. Bunch rots have not been reported as of yet. Sphinx moth larvae are now large and their feeding injury is readily apparent; mature vines can sustain quite a lot of defoliation from these larvae without consequence. Yellow jacket and raccoon feeding injury has been a problem in many vineyards, although bird depredation seems lighter than usual thus far. |
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| Weather news Jeff Andresen Agricultural Meteorology Geography An upper air troughing feature will move slowly across the Ohio Valley region during the next several days, bringing the chance for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to central and southern sections of Michigan. Fair and dry weather is expected across northern sections of the state. Best chances for rainfall will be during afternoon and early evening hours over the southern Lower Peninsula Tuesday and Wednesday (September 5-6). Dry weather is expected statewide on Thursday. A cool front is forecast to move across the state Friday and will bring the next chance for rainfall, beginning overnight Thursday into early Friday morning in Upper Michigan and over the Lower Peninsula during the day Friday into Friday evening. Precipitation totals through Saturday will generally range from 0.25 to 0.5 inches where rain falls with some areas remaining dry. Canadian high pressure is expected to move into the state and region Saturday behind the frontal system, bringing cooler and drier weather for the latter half of the upcoming weekend into early next week. Temperatures during the next few days will average a couple of degrees above the normals with highs generally in the 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s. By Saturday, look for highs to fall back into the mid- or upper 60s north to the low 70s south with lows reaching the mid-40s to the mid-50s. Medium range forecast guidance calls for the upper air troughing pattern currently over the Great Lakes region to gradually give way to a de-amplified, more west to east zonal pattern during the second week of September. The official NOAA Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day outlook (covering September 10-14) reflects the upper air troughing pattern, calling for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation totals statewide. During the 8-14 day time frame (covering September 12-18), the outlook calls for temperatures to range from near normal over southeastern sections of the state to above normal levels in the northwest. Precipitation totals are expected to fall back to below normal levels statewide. Given recent discontinuity and disparity among some of the forecast guidance tools, forecaster confidence in both of these outlooks is rated as below normal. Further ahead, the latest version of NOAA’s long lead outlook for the month of September calls for increased odds of above normal temperatures over northern sections of the state and for the equal chances/climatology scenario of near equal odds of above-, near-, and below-normal temperatures over southern sections of the state. The outlook also calls for the climatology scenario for precipitation statewide. Finally, the 3-month seasonal outlook for the September through November period calls for increased chances of milder and drier than normal weather statewide. |
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