The Cherry Variety Showcase will be held on July 18 at 4:30 PM at the NW Michigan Horticultural Research Station. It is sponsored by International Plant Management and MSU Extension.

If you have questions, contact Summit Sales at 800-424-2765. RSVP is not required, but would be appreciated by Summit Sales.

• Fresh market and processing sweet and tart variety displays and discussions
• Introduce two new processing sweet cherry varieties
• Samples from International Plant, NWMHRS, SWMREC, Clarksville, & Geneva, NY
• Next generation test selections from Cornell Univ. and New York grower, Jim Bittner

• Jim Nugent, MSU, NWMHRS
• Robert Andersen, Emeritus, Cornell Univ.
• Amy Iezzoni, MSU Dept of Horticulture
• Wally Heuser, International Pest Management
• Join us for a barbecue dinner afterwards!

Blueberry maggot flies have emerged over the past few weeks with high catches (over 10 flies in a week) at some farms. At the six farms where we have been evaluating a reduced-risk IPM program for four years, we have not yet trapped any flies. This emphasizes the need to monitor fields for this pest, so sprays are directed at the fields where they are most needed. There are a number of available options for blueberry maggot control in conventional and organic fields. For more details on blueberry maggot management, see the June 27 issue of the Fruit CAT Alert.

Japanese beetle populations have started to increase, but abundance of this pest has generally been lower this year than in many previous years. However, the threshold for this pest is still zero, so regular scouting of fields in advance of harvest is important to ensure it is controlled before pickers or machines move through the fields. For more information on Japanese beetle management options, see the July 26, 2005, issue of the Fruit CAT Alert.

Aphid colonies have been very high in many fields this year, but have started to decline in the past two weeks. This is likely the effect of natural enemies feeding on the colonies and also the effect of sprays being applied for this and other pests. There has been excellent aphid control in fields receiving treatments of Provado or Actara, the two new insecticides registered for aphid control in blueberry.

In June, EPA made an announcement regarding two important insecticides used by blueberry growers in Michigan. If their proposals continue as written, they will completely phase-out Guthion by 2010 in blueberries across the United States and also restrict Imidan use in this crop. The comment period, running until August 8, is a chance for growers to make their opinions of these proposed restrictions known to EPA.

If growers do not agree with the proposed changes, it is important to provide comments directly to EPA on why these insecticides are important for their ability to produce their crop, because grower voices carry a lot of weight with EPA. If few responses to these proposals are received arguing why these insecticides are needed, EPA assumes they are not very important and will move forward with the proposal. The agency is interested in the economic impact of the proposed changes, both for domestic and export markets, the relative effectiveness of alternative controls registered in blueberry, and why restriction on application by air, within 100 ft of water bodies, or on U-pick fields might have negative impacts on blueberry farming. They need to hear why the proposals below might be detrimental to blueberry production. It is helpful if you can estimate the economic costs or burdens of these proposals, but please explain how you came up with the estimate.

• 3 day re-entry interval (increased from 24 hours)
• Label amendments for buffer zones around houses and occupied dwellings
• Elimination of Imidan in U-pick field

• Complete removal by 2010

In the meantime…

• Reduce maximum annual use to 1 lb active ingredient (i.e. 2 lb of 50WP)
• Increase re-entry interval to 14 days
• Label amendments for buffer zones around houses and occupied dwellings
• 100 ft buffer zones around bodies of water
• Manufacturers to gather data on workers after application
• Eliminate use on U-pick operations
• Eliminate aerial application

To provide comments electronically, access www.regulations.gov and search for EPA as the agency, selecting "All documents" and entering this docket number: EPA-HQ-OPP-2002-0354-0004. Then click on the docket ID and look for the yellow speech bubble on the right to add a comment, either by typing it in directly or attaching a file. Alternatively, comments can be made by mail to the Office of Pesticide Programs (OPP) Regulatory Public Docket (7502P), Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW., Washington, DC 20460-0001.

EPA’s policy is that all comments received will be included in the docket without change and may be made available on-line at http://www.regulations.gov, including any personal information provided, unless the comment includes information claimed to be Confidential Business Information (CBI) or other information whose disclosure is restricted by statute. Do not submit information that you consider to be CBI or otherwise protected through regulations.gov or e-mail. The Federal regulations.gov web site is an anonymous access system, which means EPA will not know your identity or contact information unless you provide it in the body of your comment. If you send an e-mail comment directly to EPA without going through regulations.gov, your e-mail address will be automatically captured and included as part of the comment that is placed in the docket and made available on the Internet.

If you submit an electronic comment, EPA recommends that you include your name and other contact information in the body of your comment and with any disk or CD-ROM you submit. If EPA cannot read your comment due to technical difficulties and cannot contact you for clarification, EPA may not be able to consider your comment. Electronic files should avoid the use of special characters, any form of encryption, and be free of any defects or viruses.

Fruit rots in blueberries, such as anthracnose fruit rot (Colletotrichum acutatum) and Alternaria fruit rot (Alternaria spp.), are generally separated into two types: field rot and post-harvest rot. The former can be seen on berries in the field before harvest and is especially common when berries are left on the bushes too long. So timely harvesting is an important control measure. Post-harvest rot can develop on sound-looking berries, as spores from infected berries can infect them in the field before or during harvest or during processing. Often, these berries look healthy at harvest, but start to rot soon after. Rot may be slowed down by refrigerated storage, but will resume on the supermarket shelves, lowering fruit quality. These infections can also contribute to high microbial counts in frozen berries, leading to rejection of fruit lots by some buyers. Rapid cooling of harvested fruit is important in reducing post-harvest fruit rot incidence, particularly at the later harvests when disease pressure is generally high.

While fruit rot is often not visible until the berries ripen or even after harvest, it is prudent to assume that you will have a fruit rot problem if you had problems in past years. If the first blueberries are starting to show rot, fungicide sprays can still limit new infections of neighboring healthy berries. Applications within one to two weeks of the first harvest can still be beneficial in preventing these late infections. In fact, an additional fungicide application between the first and second harvest may be beneficial under high disease pressure.

In the past week or two, downy mildew and black rot on leaves and clusters have been detected in grapes in various parts of the state. The rainy weather we experienced in late spring is most likely responsible for disease outbreaks at this time. For instance, downy mildew oospores, which overwinter on or near the soil surface, would have benefited from the extended wet soil conditions in order to break dormancy and germinate. Dew formation and rain events propel the development of downy mildew and, if uncontrolled, this disease may lead to early defoliation of vines. Black rot similarly may have had an early start on the leaves, from where infectious spores are spread to developing berries. Rain events, especially with temperatures in the 70s and low 80s are very conducive to black rot infection. Do remember that it may take several weeks to start seeing black rot symptoms?

Phomopsis lesions are also visible on leaves, shoots and, in some cases, on cluster stems (rachises). However, with the development of copious new growth, diseased leaves may become harder to find. Berry infections usually do not become evident until several weeks before harvest and mostly originate from rachis infections. In addition, warm, dry conditions in the past few weeks, combined with moderate to high relative humidity, have been ideal for powdery mildew development. All of these observations indicate that we should be monitoring vineyards more intensively for diseases now. Particularly check shoots and clusters close to the perennial wood (trunk and arms), as these are the places where small powdery mildew colonies first occur on leaves (may be very faint), and where Phomopsis and black rot symptoms are most common. Downy mildew lesions usually first occur on leaves and shoots closer to the ground (due to oospore germination in the soil), but occasionally are found also in the top of the canopy, which may be related to heavier dew formation.

In Concord and Niagara grapes, the critical period for black rot control runs from bloom to about 5 weeks after bloom. At that time in their development berries will become naturally resistant to infection , and sprays are no longer needed for black rot control. We have to keep in mind, however, that due to the spring frost, there may be clusters present in various stages of development. This means that we have to protect the clusters until the last ones have reached the point of becoming naturally resistant. It is also important to remember that some in wine and table grapes varieties, the berries do not become fully resistant to black rot infection until 8 weeks after bloom. As they develop, grape berries also become naturally resistant to powdery mildew and downy mildew infection; however, the berry and cluster stems remain susceptible for a lot longer. Unfortunately, berries can be infected by Phomopsis throughout their development; the only thing that saves us in most years (with relatively normal amounts of precipitation) is that spore production peters out by late June-early July anyway and the risk of infection greatly diminishes.

In the next two weeks there are two IPM meetings for southwest Michigan grape growers. The first is the third in the series sponsored by MSU Extension and National Grape Cooperative and will be held this Thursday (July 13) focused on late season insect and disease IPM. There will be a morning meeting at 10:00 AM to noon at the Cronenwett Farm Shop at 70123 28th Street east of Lawton. The meeting will be repeated in Berrien County in the afternoon, held at the Southwest Michigan Research & Extension Center, 2:00 to 4:00 PM.

The second meeting will be Thursday, July 20, at Bob Dongvillo’s Farm, in Scottdale. This is the second of our 2006 IPM Workshops. The twilight meeting will be from 7:00 to 8:30 PM at this farm where MSU researchers have been testing new insect and disease IPM programs, and this year have a reduced-spray IPM program in a frost-damaged Concord vineyard. There will be a dinner and short presentations at 7:00 PM, followed by demonstrations of IPM scouting techniques, pest identification and demonstrations of the IPM program being tested at Bob’s farm.

Both of these meetings are open to anyone with an interest in grape growing in southwest Michigan.

Natural enemies and bees need pollen and nectar to survive, yet many fruit farms provide these resources only during bloom. MSU is studying native Michigan flowering plants that can provide these resources for farmers throughout the growing season. We are hosting a field day on August 1 to provide an update of this project. Planting these native Michigan perennials adjacent to fruit crops could help increase the abundance of these insects over the long-term, leading to less need for pesticide sprays and greater fruit set and yield. This field day will help growers see the plants and learn more about which ones are most attractive to bees and natural enemies.

• Learn which plants have been identified through MSU research as the most effective at attracting beneficial insects. See additional native plants to be tested.
• Learn which natural enemies common at native plants can help control your crop or garden pests.
• Hear about seeding a prairie strip with hand broadcast and seed drill methods.
• Visit a native plant nursery to learn about plant selection, seeding establishment and maintenance.

To register, send $20 (for lunch, educational materials) check made payable to Michigan State University; your name, address, phone, and email to: Heather Lenartson, MSU Dept of Entomology, 243 Natural Sciences Bldg., East Lansing, MI 48824.

For more information, e-mail Anna Fiedler at fiedlera@msu.edu or view details at http://ipm.msu.edu/plants/pdf/field-day06.pdf

Can’t attend the field day? Learn more about native plants and beneficial insects at http://ipm.msu.edu/plants/home.htm

We will be having a research field day at the Trevor Nichols Research Complex on Tuesday, September 26 from 1:00 PM to 4:00 PM. The field day will focus on insect and disease research and efficacy trials carried out this season at the TNRC by Larry Gut, Rufus Isaacs, Annemiek Schilder, David Epstein and John Wise. The TNRC is located at 6237 124th Ave. in Fennville, Michigan.

See our web page for directions: http://www.maes.msu.edu/tnrc/

Regional reports
1 -- Southwest
Mark Longstroth
Bill Shane

Weather
Temperatures the last two weeks were in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s. Scattered rain fell July 3 and July 9 with rainfall totals of 0.1 to 0.3 reported, but most areas received less than 0.1 of total rain in the last two weeks. Scatter hail was reported on July 3. Topsoils are very dry and growers are irrigating. Soil temperatures are in the 70s. This week’s forecast is for hotter weather with highs in the 90s and chance of thunderstorms. The GDD below are from the Enviro-weather site. In the last two weeks we picked up 375 GDD42, 330 GDD45 and 275 GDD50. In the coming week we will pick up 300 GDD42, 250 GDD45 and 200 GDD50.

General insect activity
Japanese beetles numbers have increased but not as dense as in the past few years. Expect more beetles to emerge after a good rain. Few fruit flies such as cherry fruit fly, apple maggot and blueberry maggot are out. More will emerge after we get some rain. The second generation of Oriental fruit moth is emerging. Codling moth trap catches are down and the first generation flight should be over. We expect the second generation to emerge this week or next. Redbanded and obliquebanded leafrollers are out. Tarnished plant bug activity is declining. You can use the Enviro-weather (http://www.enviroweather.msu.edu/home.asp) site GDD model for some pests if you know its emergence or biofix at your site.

Tree fruit
Apricots are being harvested.

Peach fruit are coloring. Queencrest was harvested last week. Earlystar, Harbinger and PF1 are being harvested.

The second generation of Oriental fruit moth is emerging. Trap numbers are up sharply this week. Egg hatch of the second generation of OFM should begin this week. Egg hatch in southern Berrien County has probably already begun. The dry weather is helping thrips. Peach orchards near mowed fields should be protected from tarnished plant bug.

Sweet cherry harvest is winding down. Brown rot was reported in several areas, but no severe outbreaks were reported.

Tart cherry harvest is in full swing. Growers need to protect against cherry leaf spot after harvest.

Plums are coloring.

Apple fruit are about 2 inches in diameter. Oriental fruit moth trap catches are up, signaling the beginning of the second generation. Codling moth trap catches are down and the first generation flight should be over. We expect the second generation to emerge this week, and egg hatch to begin at about another 1250 GDD past biofix about 1578 GDD50. Obliquebanded leafroller egg hatch continues. OBLR biofix was June 12 at 1150 GDD42 and egg hatch should end at 1000 GDD after biofix (2150 GDD). European red mites populations have exploded in some orchards, and bronzing can be seen. Five to seven mites per leaf is the treatment threshold for European red mite in July. Apple maggot has been trapped in southern Berrien County. Fungicides to reduce sooty blotch and flyspeck should be included in cover sprays. Leaf drop due to scab is common in unsprayed orchards. Fire blight shoot strike symptoms are reported to be less in orchards treated with Provado. Shoot strike is when the bacteria are carried from infected shoots to healthy shoots by leafhoppers.

Pear fruit are attacked by second generation codling moth.

Grapes are at or past berry touch. Grape berry moth larvae are feeding in the clusters. Grape leafhoppers are scarce. Phomopsis leaf lesions are common in most plantings. Black rot and downy mildew are appearing. Grape scouting reports can be found at the MSU Grape recourses page at www.grapes.msu.edu.

Strawberryrenovation has been completed in most fields. Potato leafhopper burn was common in many fields. Be prepared to treat for this pest to prevent stunting of the new growth.

Raspberry harvest is underway. Growers should be scouting for Japanese beetles. Monitor pre-harvest intervals (PHI) for fungicide and insecticide sprays.

Cranberry bloom continues.

2 -- Southeast
Bob Tritten

Weather
Rain showers on July 3 and 9 have brought between 0.3 and 0.8 inches of rain. Soil moisture levels are extremely variable across the eastern part of the state. Some growers report no significant rainfall in the last two months. Consult the weather article in this edition of Fruit CAT Alert for more information. Tree and small fruit that have received significant rain have put on a fair amount of new growth with excellent fruit size for this time of year. Our season is still running about a week ahead of normal in terms of degree days and the first harvest of our fruit crops.

Tree fruit
Apples continue to size very well with most Red Delicious in the Flint area being around 2 to 2.25 inches. Many other varieties such as Empire, Honeycrisp, Romes and Paulas are mostly at 2.5 inches.

Insect activity in apples continues to be on the rise. We’ve had strong flights of codling moth over the last two weeks; however the numbers appear to be trending downward. We are nearing the end of the first generation adult flight. Codling moth trap catch numbers in pheromone disruption blocks remain low. Oriental fruit moth trap catches continue to be on the rise, this is the second generation flight. Obliquebanded leafroller trap catches are also on the rise and appear to have a good strong flight. Many farms report trap catches in the range of 25 to 35 per trap. Apple maggot was caught for the first time the last week of June. I have not had any further reports of adult trap catch since then. With rain predicted tonight and tomorrow (July 11-12), I would expect to see more trap catch later in the week. Redbanded leafroller larvae are out in pretty good numbers. Green apple aphid populations continue to build, which has both negative and positive aspects. I am not concerned about them. Woolly apple aphid populations continue to build, but not as bad as I had expected a few weeks ago. Spotted tentiform leafminer mines have almost all been fed upon by predators. Potato leafhopper nymphs and adults are common with many needing an application of an insecticide to control them. Japanese beetles are being seen for the first time in many new locations. There are a number of farms that have now reached threshold levels for European red mite populations. These numbers have been building slowly over the last several weeks. Twospotted spider mites continue to be seen in low numbers, as do apple rust mites. There are a good number of predators being found.

For diseases in apples, cedar apple rust continues to be seen in a few blocks, particularly on low vigor trees. I continue to see a fair amount of apple scab lesions, primarily on foliage, but also on fruit. Light amounts of new fire blight strikes continue to be seen. It does not appear to be a serious problem.

Pears continue to grow well with most being around 1.75 inches. Growers continue to remove interior suckers or water sprouts to help break pear psylla populations.

Peaches continue to size quite nicely with most Red Haven being around 1.75 inches. Harvest of early varieties is expected to begin in about a week. Bacterial spot infected foliage continues to drop to the orchard floor. Growers are going back to touch-up their first round of thinning. Rusty spot is a new disease to me, and was seen in three different peach blocks over the last three weeks. The disease causes a spotting on the fruit with no symptoms on the foliage or twigs. Peach wart has been seen in several blocks.

Sweet cherry harvest is either winding down or has wrapped up. Bacterial spot infected foliage continues to be seen. Cherry fruit fly continues to be caught in traps.

Tart cherry harvest continues with most fruit sizing quite nicely.

Plums continue to grow fairly well with most being around 1 inch in size. We had a fair amount of plum drop over the entire season this year.

Raspberries harvest continues for summer red raspberries. I continue to see collapse of summer red and black raspberry canes, dying from the tip end. I believe this is caused by delayed winter injury. Fall red raspberries are now about 30 inches. I continue to see some flower bud development on a small number of canes.

Blueberries continue to size quite nicely with the largest fruit being around 18 to 20 mm in size for early season varieties. Some limited harvest is expected to begin on very early varieties over the weekend or early next week. Most varieties are coloring quite nicely. I have not had reports of blueberry maggot trap catch this week, but I would expect to see that with this next predicted rain event. Birds are actively feeding on ripening blueberries.

Grapes are nearing berry touch with a fairly good crop of grapes coming along.

3 -- Grand Rapids Area
Phil Schwallier
Amy Irish Brown
Carlos Garcia-Salazar

Tree Fruit
In apples, there is still a concern for trauma blight if we get hail or high winds with any of the rain called for over the next several days in blocks that have active blight in them. Once terminal buds are set, trauma blight isn’t so much of a worry.

Powdery mildew is still very active in some apple blocks. Fungicide covers are needed at least until terminal buds set. Fungicides are also still needed for sooty blotch and flyspeck.

A regional biofix for codling moth was set for May 10, and we’ve accumulated 904 GDD50 since then. This indicates that we are very near the end of first generation activity.

Trap numbers continued to decline in most blocks from last weeks’ numbers indicating first generation flight is ending. Second generation flight is probably a week away yet, but trap numbers could start to increase at anytime.

I set a regional biofix for obliquebanded leafroller on June 12. We’ve accumulated 746 GDD42 since then. Egg hatch is probably past a peak and trap numbers will decrease. There are plenty of larvae in blocks that becoming much easier to find. We are at a peak timing for good covers to be on for leafrollers.

European red mites are still an issue in some blocks, but they are being held in check with summer miticides in many blocks. Continue to monitor populations closely, as I expect to see them explode with the very warm and dry conditions predicted over the next week.

Rosy apple aphids are less abundant, but green apple aphids continue to build. Predators are more common in aphid colonies as well, but green apple aphid numbers are still building.

With white apple leafhopper and potato leafhopper, all life forms can be found now. Potato leafhoppers have been causing significant damage in non-bearing trees.

Second generation flight of Oriental fruit moth began last week, and new larvae from the second generation should hatch from eggs at any time. Controls in peaches andother stone fruits are very important over the next several weeks. Watch the PHI’s. In apples, some damage can be caused to fruits from this generation of Oriental fruit moth as codling moth cover sprays are lessened here in between generations or where mating disruption is used for codling moth, and there are not other pesticides used.

No apple maggot adults have been caught in this area yet, but they could start to fly at any time, especially if we get significant rainfall that will drive them out of the soil. Cherry fruit fly started flying in this area late last week. They will begin egg laying in cherries at anytime now.

The size of the expected crop is above 80 million pounds of blueberries with prices for processing and fresh berries going from 1 to 1.30 dollars per pound.

Regarding insect pests, the flight of all fruitworms is over. Because there was a gap between the emergences of the cherry fruitworm and the cranberry fruitworm, some fruitworm damage is showing up at harvest in those fields that delayed fruitworm control. Most of this damage is caused by cherry fruitworm. Another insect already present at harvest is the Japanese beetle. Although the number of beetles at this time is low control measures should be taken if berries are going to be machine harvested.

With respect to diseases, Phomopsis twig blight and canker is showing up again. In those fields with a history of Phomopsis attacks, it is necessary to remove infected shoots to prevent further spreading of the disease.

4 -- West Central
Mira Danilovich

Weather and crop development
In the last two weeks the weather has been seasonable with the high temperatures in the high 70s and 80s with the exception of a couple of days when the highs did not pass the 70 degree mark. Precipitation has been variable with the highest amount of 1.29 inches registered in Hart and significantly dropping down as we go north. For the same period, Ludington received 0.6 inches and the Manistee/Bear Lake area only 0.13 inches. Moisture is getting depleted at accelerated rates due to the high evapotranspiration rate.

Tree fruit
Sweet cherry harvest is underway. Though there is some scarring due to the early-season frost, thanks to the diminished rain amounts and their frequency the overall quality is very good. Tart cherry harvest has started. By next week we should be in a full swing of things. Weekly harvest data could be followed on the CIAB web site http://www.cherryboard.org/

Insect activity is relatively high. Codling moth trap catches have been high, averaging over two moths per trap. We have accumulated 681 GDD50 since biofix on May 21.

Obliquebanded leafroller numbers are dropping down ever since their peak on June 24 (61moths per trap). Second generation emergence is expected over the course of next week.

Leafhoppers could be found in quite high numbers throughout the area. Green apple aphids are a common sight in many blocks. Fortunately, there are quite a few predators associated with the aphid colonies keeping them in check. European red mites are being found in increasing numbers. With the rise of temperature, their numbers will exceed the threshold even in the blocks where they may not be a problem at the moment. Japanese beetles are starting to show up everywhere. In some blocks they could be found in clusters devouring everything in sight.

Cherry fruit fly is being caught throughout the district. Their numbers have gone up significantly since the last report. Lesser peachtree borer and greater peachtree borer numbers have gone up since last week. Rose chafer is present, but not in high numbers. Green peach aphids are high in many blocks throughout the area. Here, too, there are many predators in high numbers keeping them in check, for the most part.

Disease presence is evident. Cherry leaf spot is a major problem in quite a few blocks, particularly in Oceana County. The question of resistance to sterol inhibitors has been raised. That is a definite possibility. But, we cannot forget the perennial problem of inadequate coverage and some other “human factors.” Bacterial diseases have been common throughout the area, and in many cases, led to significant defoliation this early in a season. Powdery mildew could be found throughout the area though it does not seem to be a major problem.

5 -- Northwest
Nikki Rothwell
Jim Nugent
Jim Bardenhagen
Duke Elsner

Weather
During the past two weeks, there have been three rain events, but all were quite low in total precipitation. At the NWMHRS, precipitation for the past two weeks has totaled 0.3 and 0.13 inches.

Sweet cherries are being harvested. Cracking is exceptionally low, particularly given the large number of fruit with frost scars. Tart harvest is just beginning in a few sites and will be increasing during the next week. Cherry leaf spot symptoms are evident in many tart cherry blocks, and there is a particularly high level of powdery mildew on most terminal shoots. We continue to catch cherry fruit flies in the entomology block at the NWMHRS, but we have also caught flies in commercially managed blocks.

Large sphinxmoths are now on the wing, so larvae may begin to appear in the next few weeks. Leelanau County growers should be on the lookout for Japanese beetles. First found in Leelanau County in 2005, their population is high in the Sugar Loaf resort area, but it appears to be spreading from this area.

Weather news
Jeff Andresen
Agricultural Meteorology
Geography

A wave of low pressure will ride along the remnants of a front that passed through the state last Sunday and Monday, bringing a good chance for rainfall to southern sections of the state late Tuesday into early Wednesday. In southwestern sections of the state largely missed by recent rainfall, it will likely be the best chance for rainfall in many weeks. Rainfall chances and amounts will be greatest over far southern sections of Michigan, decreasing northward. Rainfall totals will generally remain in the 0.25- to 0.5-inch category across the southern half of Lower Michigan with some 1.0 inch totals possible in the far south near the Indiana and Ohio borders. Northern sections of the region including the Upper Peninsula and northern third of the Lower Peninsula will likely remain dry. High pressure will move into the region by Thursday (July 13) and persist through the weekend, bringing hot, humid and dry weather statewide. Temperatures will surge to much above normal levels for the next five days with means running 5 to 10 degrees F above the climatological normals. High temperatures Thursday through next Sunday will generally range from the mid- or upper 80s north to the low and possibly mid-90s south with lows ranging from the mid and upper 60s north to the low 70s south. With dew point temperatures approaching 70°F, heat index values could approach 100°F this weekend. A cool front is expected to approach the region by late Sunday or Monday of next week with the next chance for significant precipitation.

Medium range forecast guidance has been consistent the past few days suggesting upper air troughing over the western United States with a ridge over most of the central United States. As a result, both 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (covering July 16-20 and 18-24) call for above normal temperatures state- and region-wide. Precipitation totals during the 6-10 day time frame are forecast to range from near normal across Lower Michigan to below normal across the Upper Peninsula. During the 8-14 day period, drier than normal weather is forecast statewide. It is worth noting, that the most recent medium-range computer guidance from early Tuesday suggests a change in the pattern mentioned above with the development of a trough and cooler temperatures over the Great Lakes and New England region by the middle of next week. Thus, confidence in the official outlook at this point would have to be considered less than usual.