Vol. 18, No. 1, March 20, 2003

In this Issue
Start up for 2003 publishing season
Tips for using this web site
Winter injury to wheat
Timing of micro-rate herbicide applications by growing degree days
Gangster herbicide for use in soybeans
Update on Dual and Outlook labels for sugar beets
Seed treatment of soybeans
Seed treatment for dry bean bacterial blights
Starter fertilizer for corn - Q&A
Regional reports
Weather news

Welcome to the first issue of the growing season for Michigan State University's Field Crop Advisory Team Alert newsletter. The articles in this issue offer updated information for making early season decisions. In particular, we are including an article with advice for evaluating winter injury of wheat. It is likely too early to determine if a planting of wheat has survived, however, wheat growers will want to read this article and begin to weigh its advice.

Also, for those of you who use the Internet, our newsletters from the past five years are searchable for a wide range of topics at: http://www.ipm.msu.edu/fieldCAT.htm
Next issue: April 17.

Tips for using this web site

Joy N. Landis, editor

Our goal for the web version of the Alert newsletters is to provide you with quality, timely information that downloads easily. Here is an explanation of the links offered on the navigational bar at the top of each issue.

1) The "precipitation totals" link brings up statewide weekly precipitation totals from MSU's Agricultural Meteorologist Jeff Andresen.

2) "Growing degree days" takes you to GDD totals from the previous day as reported by various stations around Michigan to MSU.

3) "Evapotranspiration estimates" links to a map of Michigan where color indicates the previous day's estimated amount of evapotranspiration. Andresen provides this with his colleagues at the University of Wisconsin. The data will be posted regularly soon this spring.

4) Click on "Print or view text only" if you would like to view text without any graphics. Those with slower modem connections may find this the most effective way to view or print the newsletter.

5) Following the link labeled "MSU Diagnostic Services" will take you to the homepage of MSU's Diagnostic Services. The website includes directions for submitting a sample, how to contact the lab, and a library of articles and photos of common diagnoses.

"Field Crop CAT home" links back to the calendar page of our issues where you can also search the newsletter archives or sign up to receive an email each time we post a new issue. You may also want to surf our other field crop resources at: http://www.ipm.msu.edu/field_cr.htm

Hotlinks in our articles will appear in orange links. Links may lead to photos, tables, diagrams, email addresses or other websites. Clicking on the narrow black and white bars that separate the articles will return you to the top of the web page.

If you have questions or suggestions about reading the newsletters on the web, please feel free to email us at catalert@msue.msu.edu

Winter wheat was subjected to some very cold temperatures this past winter.  A wheat plant is at risk when its crown is exposed to approximately 10°F or colder for an extended period of time.  Fortunately, crown level and ground level temperatures are usually significantly warmer than reported ambient air temperatures.  Nevertheless, with little or no snow cover, some wheat fields may have sustained some damage.

At this point, it may be too early to arrive at a reasonable estimate of wheat injury.  Early season assessments, especially when based on a casual look at foliage color, can be misleading.  Wheat plants that have brown, desiccated leaves may actually have a healthy crown.  On the other hand, plants that have begun to show evidence of green shoot growth may still die in several days time.  The reason, in this later case, is that temperatures are sometimes cold enough to destroy the crown's ability to grow new roots, but not cold enough to destroy the more resilient shoot regenerating part of the crown.  Early season assessments may also be premature simply because current injury may be compounded by stresses sometimes experienced in early spring: ice sheeting, heaving or prolonged periods of saturated soils.

Growers or field personnel wishing to gain a preliminary field assessment of dormant wheat may want to try a protocol discovered by Paul Gross, Isabella County MSUE published by the University of Nebraska (Lyon and Klein, NebGuide, June, 2001):

1.       Remove the top three inches of soil containing the plant crown (typically located 1 to 2 inches below the soil surface).
2.       Thaw the samples and warm to room temperature.
3.       Remove soil from the roots and wash with cool water to remove attached soil.
4.       Cut off fall growth to within 1 inch above the crown and roots below the crown.
5.       Rinse the crowns with cool water.
6.       Place 10 wet crowns in a labeled plastic bag, inflate the bag and tie shut.
7.       Place the bags in a lighted room, but not in direct sunlight.
8.       Check the crowns in two days, rinse with cool water and re-inflate the bag.
9.       After four days, the crown should show about two inches of new growth. (There should be both new shoot and root growth.)
10.   Plants that are not growing after six days should be considered dead when estimating survival.
11.   Some plants may grow poorly and develop molds which live on dead or injured plants.

Another indication of winter damage can sometimes be attained by making a longitudinal cross section of the crown.  If the interior tissue is discolored, damage is likely to have occurred.

When assessing numerous fields, one or more trends may become apparent:  wheat planted in late fall tends to be less likely to survive and less vigorous than early planted wheat;  planting seed shallowly increases the chance of winter kill;  some varieties are more winter hardy than others;  no-till wheat may have a higher rate of survival where there is significant residue from the previous crop; and wheat crops growing in soils that tend to be excessively dry or wet are more likely to experience winter losses.

Growers who suspect winter damage may want to give some thought to the following points or suggestions:

§      Wheat having a reasonably uniform stand of five or more healthy, vigorous plants per foot of row may still achieve up to half of its original yield potential.
§      Following a severe winter, surviving wheat exhibiting a high level of spring vigor tend to yield substantially more than low vigor wheat.
§      Contemplate which crops might displace wheat, keeping in mind production costs, market potential, herbicide rotation restrictions, and crop rotation implications.
§      Review contractual obligations and marketing alternatives, if any part of the 2003 wheat crop is already sold.
§      Postpone fertilizer nitrogen applications until the wheat stand and yield potential can be assessed.  The exception might be if corn (or other crop having a high nitrogen requirement) is to displace the damaged wheat.
§      Plan for a more aggressive weed control program as wheat stands that are thin or lack vigor will likely experience greater weed competition.
§      If wheat is to be abandoned, the crop insurance agent should be contacted before the crop is destroyed so that an adjuster can appraise and release the acreage.  Also, the agent should be contacted this spring if fields are only weakened and a claim may be contemplated.

Wheat is a very resilient and hardy crop, but closer inspection is warranted this spring following the frigid temperature of the past winter. As the crop develops in the weeks to come, watch this newsletter for observations and more specific recommendations for the season.

Weeds emerge every year in sugar beet fields. The time of weed emergence and the rate of weed growth are dependent on temperature and soil moisture. Weeds must be controlled in sugar beets when they are very small (less than one inch). Usually growers apply postemergence herbicides twice, each time when the weeds are less than one inch tall. In 2000, the micro-rate was registered for use in Michigan. In 2002, the micro-rate was applied to over 60 percent of Michigan's sugar beet acres. With the postemergence micro-rate program, growers apply reduced rates of herbicides + methylated seed oil each time weeds reach ¼ to ½ inches in height.

According to the herbicide labels, the timing of micro-rate herbicide applications in sugar beets should be every five to seven days following the first application. This spray schedule does not account for cool weather conditions when weeds and sugar beets are either not growing or are growing very slowly. During these cool periods, the time required for weeds to reach the cotyledon growth stage may be two weeks or longer. Therefore, when growers are spraying in these cool conditions on a seven-day schedule some of the herbicide application(s) are not needed, sugar beets can be injured, and unnecessary dollars are spent. Furthermore, if the timing of micro-rates is not optimized, weeds can escape and cause future problems.

For the reasons previously mentioned, we set out to find more appropriate guidelines for postemergence herbicide applications in sugar beets. We decided to follow a spray schedule using growing degree days (GDD). We chose air temperature because many growers already use air temperatures and GDD for other crop protection practices and air temperatures are readily available within certain geographical areas.

In 2001 and 2002, we planted "Hilleshog E-17" and "Beta 5400" in 30-inch rows in early April, mid-April, and early May to determine if planting date influenced the effectiveness of postemergence herbicide applications based on GDD. These planting dates represented an early planting, a normal planting, and a late planting date. In both years, the first planting was just when growers had started to plant, the mid-April planting was when the majority of the sugar beets were planted, and the early May date was when the last few acres were planted. We applied the micro-rate every: 1) seven days, 2) 175 GDD, 3) 225 GDD, 4) 275 GDD, and 5) scout and apply when needed. We calculated GDD based on air temperature (Figure 1-7). The number of broadcast micro-rate applications in these field plots ranged from 4 to 9, depending on the planting date and micro-rate strategy. Spraying every seven days or every 175 GDD resulted in excellent weed control. Stunting of sugar beets from these repeated applications was evident in May but by mid-June these differences were no longer evident. The 225 and 275 GDD treatment provided excellent control of common lambsquarters at all planting dates in both years, and sugar beet injury was less in these treatments than where micro-rates were applied every seven days or every 175 GDD. However, redroot pigweed and Powell amaranth were not controlled as well with the 275 GDD treatment compared to applying micro-rates every seven days, 175, or 225 GDD. Redroot pigweed and Powell amaranth emerge later in the season compared to common lambsquarters. This information suggests that we could lengthen the time between herbicide applications early in the season to 275 GDD when lambsquarters is our predominant weed and then shorten our time between micro-rate applications to 175 to 225 GDD in mid-May through June when redroot pigweed and Powell amaranth emerge.

There was an economic advantage to applying micro-rates using GDD. One broadcast micro-rate application carries an estimated herbicide cost of $20 per acre. Reducing one micro-rate herbicide application would therefore save the farmer time and herbicide cost and reduce the potential for sugar beet injury. There was a trend for greater yield when micro-rates were applied on a 225 or 275 GDD schedule. However, pigweed species may escape the 275 GDD treatments. Therefore, this research suggests following a 225 GDD schedule for fields with low to moderate weed pressure. For fields with high organic matter (black soils) and high weed pressure, we suggest checking fields at 150 GDD and timing applications for 175 GDD. For growers that want to adjust the timing of micro-rates relative to weed emergence, we suggest lengthening out the spray interval early in the season (April) to 275 GDD, timing for 225 GDD in May until the time of pigweed emergence, and then applying every 175 - 200 GDD for redroot pigweed.

Gangster herbicide for use in soybeans

Karen Renner
Crop & Soil Sciences

Gangster herbicide was registered for use in soybeans in December 2002, so it is not in the Weed Control Guide for Field Crops (E-434). Gangster is a multi-pack that contains Valor and FirstRate. Gangster V is Valor and Gangster R is FirstRate. Valor PRE provides good control of lambsquarters, pigweeds, nightshades, and common ragweed. FirstRate PRE provides good to excellent control of most broadleaf weeds except nightshade, so applying both of these herbicides provides a wider spectrum of broadleaf weed control.

Furthermore, Valor is not an ALS herbicide - so Valor will control ALS resistant common ragweed. Neither herbicide has grass activity. Gangster cannot be tank-mixed with Dual II Magnum, Outlook, or Lasso/Microtech because soybean injury can occur. Therefore, Gangster could be applied with Prowl PRE or grass would need to be controlled with a different herbicide in a POST application. The crop tolerance rating for Valor and FirstRate in the Weed Control Guide is a 2. Crop injury can occur when conditions are cool and wet at the time of soybean emergence. Soybeans will be stunted for a short time and emerge slowly. The rotation restrictions are the same as for FirstRate - so Gangster should not be used if sugarbeets, canola, cucumbers, tomatoes, potatoes, or other specialty crops are planted in the rotation (see Table 11 in the Weed Control Guide or see the Gangster label). The suggested application rates for Gangster range from 1.8 to 3.6 oz/A, depending on the planned weed control program.

 Gangster at 3.1 oz/A is equivalent to 2.5 oz/A of Valor + 0.6 oz/A of FirstRate.

 Gangster at 2.4 oz/A is equivalent to 2 oz/A of Valor + 0.5 oz/A of FirstRate.

We have not received any notification as of today (March 20) of the Section 3 federal label for use of Dual in sugar beets. The label has been through the 30-day comment period and a tolerance for sugar beets is expected to be issued shortly followed by the label. This label will allow the use of Dual in sugar beets in the United States and will be for PPI, PRE, and POST applications. We will publish the label in the Field Crop CAT Alert when it is granted.

Michigan has not received a Section 18 Emergency Use Exemption for Outlook in sugar beets at this time. Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, and Minnesota have been granted a Section 18 for postemergence applications of Outlook in sugar beets for control of waterhemp and Powell amaranth (a pigweed species). Michigan has applied for a Section 18 and is awaiting notification by EPA. This is for POST applications only, so a decision should be reached by mid-April.

A seed and seedling rot of soybeans occurs in southwest Michigan, most often in St. Joseph, Kalamazoo and Cass counties. This disease is caused by a Pythium species and resembles Pythium diseases occurring in Iowa and Minnesota. This Pythium seed and seedling rot can be severe if excessive rainfall occurs immediately after planting. It has been observed in well-drained and poorly drained soils; in sandy as well as heavier soils; and in low and high organic soils. The disease appears sporadically. It may occur in one part of a field in one year, but the following year may appear elsewhere. Moreover, a second planting in a diseased area may (or may not) give a healthy stand.

Seeds may decay before germination, or if they germinate, the young seedling becomes swollen and often twisted and usually fails to emerge. Thus, gaps may occur in a row or over larger areas. Seed treatment with Apron may be beneficial in improving stands, because the disease does not appear to affect plants after they have emerged. Apron seed treatment is also effective against Phytophthora seed and seedling rot, which has also been observed in southwest Michigan. For the southwest region of Michigan, seed treatment with Apron is recommended in fields that have experienced poor stands in the past, however it is not recommended as a general practice throughout Michigan because no clear yield benefits have been consistently demonstrated.

There are two important bacterial blights of dry beans in Michigan, halo blight and common blight. Common blight affects all bean types, whereas halo blight mostly affects colored beans. Bin run dry bean seed should always be blight tested. Blight testing detects the presence of both bacterial blight pathogens inside the seed. This is important because dry bean seed treatments control only external contamination of the seed by the bacteria and not internal contamination.

All dry bean seed should be treated with a mixture containing a fungicide, an antibiotic, and an insecticide. Before treating the seed, have it tested for bacterial blight contamination at the Michigan Department of Agriculture Laboratory, 1615 S. Harrison, East Lansing, MI 48823. Samples that blight test positive should not be used for planting.

Samples of dry bean seed testing negative still need to be treated in order to control the bacterial pathogens on the outside of the seed, which are eliminated only with seed treatment. Seed treatment slurry's contain a five percent streptomycin solution for bacterial control; captan, thiram or similar protectant fungicide to protect the seed from seed rots and seedling blights; and lorsban, lindane or similar insecticide, to protect the seed from the seed corn maggot. The MSU Extension bulletin E-1199, Seed treatment for field crops, should be consulted for additional information.

Q.   When and where do you see the greatest benefits from starter fertilizer?

A.    The most dramatic yield benefits from starter fertilizer are seen on soils testing low in phosphorus (P) (<30 lb/a). Data collected over two years on low P testing soils in southern Minnesota demonstrates this (Table 1). A similar effect of potassium (K) is also found on soils testing low in K (<200 lb/a) (Table 2).

P and K are immobile nutrients, meaning they diffuse slowly in the soil. Plants rely primarily on diffusion to take up P and K. Thus, good root systems are needed to maximize P and K uptake, so that the distance that P and K diffuses from the soil to the root is short. On low fertility soils, the band placement of nutrients is superior to broadcast. This is because the band places a high concentration of nutrients in close proximity to the young root system. Additionally, nutrients are "tied up" less by the soil when placed in a band compared to broadcast application.

When planting early in cool soil, P is less mobile and root growth is slower. Placing P in a starter band increases the amount of P available to the seedling under these conditions. Large amounts of surface residue at planting tends to keep the soil cooler, reducing P mobility, and may tie up soil nitrogen (N) as soil organisms breakdown the residue. Thus, nitrogen in the starter is useful to provide adequate amounts of N to the seedling. Table 3 shows the impact of N, P, and K in 2x2 banded starter fertilizer on corn yield in Illinois during two cool planting seasons.

Table 1. Effectiveness of band applied P₂O₅ on corn yield on low P testing soils (Rehm, 1999).

*Treatment differences followed by the same letter are not significantly different at the 0.05 confidence level.

Table 2. Effectiveness of band applied K₂O on corn yield on low K testing soils (Rehm, 1999).

*Treatment differences followed by the same letter are not significantly different at the 0.05 confidence level.

Table 3. Impact of N, P, and K in 2x2 banded starter fertilizer on corn yield in Illinois during two cool planting seasons (Franzen and Gerwing, 1997).

Bray P-1 test levels ranged from 32 - 92 lb P/a. K levels ranged from 148 - 386 lb K/a. Soil test P and K levels are considered to be within the range of agronomic optimum or greater.

160 lb N/a applied to all plots prior to treatments.

Q.   Can or should I use "pop up" (with seed) starter fertilizer?

A.    Pop-up placement is popular with growers who have large planters and cannot use traditional 2x2 band placement. On soils that test agronomically optimum (medium) this placement may provide the low rates of nutrients required for good yields. Research in southern Minnesota was conducted to determine the effect of three liquid fertilizers applied as pop-ups on soils with high soil test P and K levels (Rehm, 1999). Small consistent yield increases were seen even though the soil test levels were high. In both years of the study, there was ample moisture in the soil surrounding the seed. In dry soils, damage may occur from the use of pop-ups.

There are some cautions regarding pop-up placement. Urea should not be placed in contact with the seed. Rates as low as 5 lb N/a supplied from urea in contact with the seed have caused yield reductions on the order of 50 percent. Ammonium nitrate can be applied with the seed at rates up to 10 lb N/a before yield reductions are seen. Ammonium thiosulfate, 12-0-0-26S, is used to provide S in liquid formulations. Ammonium thiosulfate applied with the seed can reduce emergence (Christenson, 2000).

Materials with a neutral pH and low salt index can generally be applied safely as pop-ups at rates of 5 - 10 gal/a.

Table 4. Effect of fluid fertilizer grade and rate on corn emergence and yield (Rehm, 1999).

* control = no fertilizer applied with the seed

Q.   Are starter fertilizers necessary on high fertility soils (soils with high soil test P and K)?

A.    Early season growth responses are almost assured when starter fertilizer is applied. However, the probability of a significant yield response to starter fertilizer on high fertility soils in generally low. Research in Illinois found that starter fertilizer hastened the growth of corn through all growth stages (Bullock et al., 1993). It was found that tasseling and black layer appeared two days earlier when starter (2x2 band) was applied compared to no starter. Yield was unaffected by starter treatment, but the grain was drier at harvest. Thus, the economic benefit to starter fertilizer on high fertility soils may be related to reduced drying costs as opposed to increased yield.

The study reported by Franzen and Gerwing (1997) (Table 3) shows that small increases in corn yield are obtained by starter containing N, N + P, and N + P + K on high fertility soils. The greatest yield increase compared to no starter was when N + P + K starter was applied. A three-year study in Wisconsin found that the probability of a profitable response to starter fertilizer occurred at later planting dates, when using varieties with longer relative maturities, and where soil test K levels were less than 280 lb K/a (Bundy and Andraski, 1999). These guidelines for Wisconsin have not been verified in Michigan.

Q.   Are there really any differences between orthophosphate and polyphosphate?

A.  Orthophosphate is a single P ion bound to four oxygen ions. Polyphosphates are simply multiple orthophosphates bound together by oxygen in a chainlike fashion. Polyphosphates break apart to orthophosphates by a hydrolysis (addition of water) reaction (see accompanying diagram). The hydrolysis of polyphosphate is dependent upon several soil factors including: temperature, pH, oxygen content, and biological activity. "Data covering nearly 40 years of research, presents strong evidence of the rapidity of phosphate hydrolysis. Whether hydrolysis is complete in a few days or weeks, the process is fast enough to supply plants and roots with sufficient orthophosphate" (Lohry, 2001). Thus, claims, of one liquid fertilizer being better than another based solely on the fact that it contains orthophosphate as opposed to polyphosphates, are unsubstantiated.

References and additional reading

Bullock, D. G., F.W. Simmons, I.M. Chung, and G.I. Johnson. 1993. Growth Analysis of Corn Grown with or without Starter Fertilizer. Crop Science. 33:112-117.

Bundy, L.G. and T.W. Andraski. 1999. Site-Specific Factors Affecting Corn Response to Starter Fertilizer. Journal of Production Agriculture. 12:644-670.

Christenson, D. 2000. "Pop-up" Fertilizers, Fertilizers with the Seed. Michigan State University, Crop and Soil Sciences Departmental Fact Sheet.

Franzen, D. and J. Gerwing. 1997. Effectiveness of Using Low Rates of Plant Nutrients. North Central Research Pub. No. 341

Lohry, R. 2001. Ortho Vs. Poly. Fluid Journal. 9(4):17-19.

Rehm, G. 1999. Use of Banded Fertilizer for Corn Production. Univ. of Minnesota Ext. Bulletin FO-7425-F.

1 - Southeast

Ned Birkey

Weather

Spring has been a long time coming with the seventh snowiest winter finally behind us. Frost was 36 to 50 inches deep. The dramatic change in temperatures has many fields saturated with moisture. We don't need a forecasted rainy spell now. Soil temperatures had been a rock steady (and hard) 31° for the past month, but are starting to climb up to 35° yesterday (March 19).

Commodity reports

Alfalfa has not yet greened-up but will soon with above normal temperatures since last Saturday (March 15). We had a tough year last summer with hot, dry weather so many stands have weeds and are not in very good quality. Supplies are virtually gone with many people hauling hay down here from up north. Highest reported price for a bale of hay has been $10.

Corn acreage should be up this year because of the new Farm Bill and an increased acreage to soybeans in the past few years. Some farmers are excited about the potential of the new corn rootworm corn. Francis Childs' corn yields continue to generate enthusiasm for better corn yields relative to soybeans. Nitrogen management will be more important than in the past couple of years because of high prices.

Wheat appears to have overwintered well, though several days of forecasted rain with subsequent ponding may drown-out large areas of some fields. Each day you can see more greening and can evaluate the crop better than even the day before. We need another week to fully evaluate stands, however. Last fall we saw a tremendous wheat seeding as prices were relatively high and the new Farm Bill favors wheat over the past Farm Bill and over soybeans. Fall weed control is becoming more common, on fall wheat as well as corn and soybean residue.

Miscellaneous

The best thing to cheer about so far is the Red Wings. Sign up for the new Farm Bill has been low, about 19 percent as of last Friday. The low numbers have made it easier for those who are starting the sometimes-complicated sign up process. Winter annuals and dandelions were the hot weed topics this past year. We have had more winter/fall auctions than "normal" and some scattered acreage was never farmed last year. Water quantity and quality are background hot topics down here besides the usual farm concerns.

Fred Springborn

Weather

Spring? Our last day of sub zero temperatures was March 9 when the weather station measured a low of -8°F. Eight days later we got our first, though short-lived, taste of spring when we observed 66.7°F for the high temperature at the same weather station on March 17. Soil temperatures at the 4-inch depth have risen from the upper 20's and are now in the low 30's averaging just above the 32°F mark. As of last Sunday, the ice fishing shanties have been pulled off the lakes but the ice fisherman and ice fisher-ladies had not yet given up on Sunday and were still on the ice. Over all this has been a cold winter with little snow cover and few breaks from freezing temperatures.

Commodity reports

Winter wheat has not yet broken dormancy. There are a few signs that there is some winter injury, but it is difficult to determine at this time how widespread the extent.

Like winter wheat, alfalfa has not broken dormancy.

Tracy Aichele
Geography

Note to readers

Jeff Andresen is currently on sabbatical leave in Europe and will miss the first half of the upcoming Michigan growing season. He is scheduled to return in early July. In the mean time, Tracy Aichele of the Michigan Climatological Resources Program will be providing periodic weather updates for this column.

Cold, dry winter

Warmer weather greeted us this week as a persistent trough dissipated and a more variable, spring-like jet stream pattern arrived. Despite the recent warming, the December to February winter of 2002-2003 was the coldest since 1993-1994. Just as importantly, with an almost total absence of Gulf of Mexico-origin moisture (our main source of water vapor in the region), precipitation totals remained well below normal (generally 25-50 percent of normal), so the 2002-2003 winter will also go into the record books as one of the driest of the past century.

Snows in early to mid-March in the southern part of the Lower Peninsula were welcomed for the additional moisture (totaling about ½ inch across southern Lower Michigan), but longer term precipitation totals for October 15 to March 18 were 3 to 8 inches below normal in the Lower Peninsula with the greatest deficits in the northern and western Lower Peninsula, where precipitation was only about 25 percent of normal. The prolonged cold and lack of snow cover throughout much of the state led to a deep frost layer, but none of the Michigan Automated Weather Network (MAWN) stations recorded soil temperatures below 18°F for December 1, 2002, through March 15, 2003. While the frozen soils have prevented some melting snow and recent precipitation from soaking into the profile, the cold temperatures may ultimately result in lower overall disease and insect pressure following several mild winters and elevated growing season pest pressure.

Heading into the growing season, low soil moisture reserves could be a concern with dry conditions in Michigan forecasted to continue at least through May. The Lower Peninsula is currently characterized by NOAA's drought monitor as being under "moderate to severe drought" and the Upper Peninsula is characterized as "abnormally dry." In contrast to the precipitation pattern, the areas most severely affected are the northern and eastern parts of the Lower Peninsula with soil profile moisture in some areas at 50 percent of normal. Most areas of the Lower Peninsula have topsoil moisture rated at 50 percent or less of normal.

For the Upper Peninsula, soil profile moisture is about 10-15 percent less than normal, but topsoil moisture is about 30 percent less than normal. Most areas of the Corn Belt are also facing drought conditions, but the Western Corn Belt may receive limited relief in March.

Long range forecast

In the equatorial Pacific, sea surface temperatures continue to cool, and an end to El Nino and a return to near-normal conditions in the equatorial Pacific are forecast for April-October. This is reflected in the NOAA long-lead outlooks for the Great Lakes region, which call for lower than normal precipitation through May and an equal-odds scenario for the summer. Forecasters are divided on the long-lead outlooks in the equatorial Pacific with some models indicating a weak El Nino for late 2003 and others indicating the development of La Nina. All of this uncertainty translates into a series of very vague forecasts for late 2003 into early 2004.